Water, Water, Everywhere: Sea Level Rise in Miami

Predicted (blue) and observed (green) high/low water heights at Virginia Key, May1-May 31. (NOAA/NOS)
Map of the Miami area, where colors indicate the depth to the water table. A lot of area is covered by 0-4 feet, including all of Miami Beach. (Keren Bolter, FAU)
hightides_1996_2015.png
miami_3ft_v2.png
tide_data_annualcycleremoved1.png
vk_annual3.png

Dublin Core

Title

Water, Water, Everywhere: Sea Level Rise in Miami

Subject

Geographical Landscape of Sea Level Rise

Creator

Brian McNoldy

Source

University of Miami Library

Publisher

Univeristy of Miami Library

Date

October, 2014

Contributor

Brian McNoldy for the University of Miami

Rights

University of Miami

Format

Text, Image

Language

English

Type

Image

Text Item Type Metadata

Text

Like many low-lying coastal cities around the world, Miami is threatened by rising seas. Whether the majority of the cause is anthropogenic or natural, the end result is indisputable: sea level is rising. It is not a political issue, nor does it matter if someone believes in it or not.

The mean sea level has risen noticeably in the Miami and Miami Beach areas just in the past decade.  Flooding events are getting more frequent, and some areas flood during particularly high tides now: no rain or storm surge necessary.  Perhaps most alarming is that the rate of sea level rise is accelerating.

The Miami metropolitan region has the greatest amount of exposed financial assets and 4th-largest population vulnerable to sea level rise in the world.  The only other cities with a higher combined (financial assets and population) risk are Hong Kong and Calcutta [2].

 Using a sea level rise projection of 3 feet by 2100 from the 5th IPCC Report [3] and elevation/inundation data, a map showing the resulting inundation is shown below.  The areas shaded in blue would be flooded during routine high tides, and very easily flooded by rain during lower tides.  Perhaps the forecast is too aggressive, but maybe not… we simply do not know with high confidence what sea level will do in the coming century.  But we do know that it is rising and showing no sign of slowing down.

In the next 20 years, what should we reasonably expect in southeast Florida?  The median value of sea level from various observed trends in 2034 is around 5 inches, with a realistic range of 3-7 inches.

Year by year, flooding due to heavy rain, storm surge, and high tides will become more frequent and more severe.  Water tables will continue to rise, and saltwater intrusion will continue to contaminate fresh water supplies.

This is not an issue that will simply go away.  Even without any additional anthropogenic contributions, sea level will continue to rise, perhaps for thousands of years.  But anthropogenic contributions are speeding up the process, giving us less time to react and plan.

Coastal cities were built relatively recently, without any knowledge of or regard for rising seas and evolving coastlines.  As sea level rises, coastlines will retreat inward. Sea level rise is a very serious issue for civilization, but getting everyone to take it seriously is a challenge.  As Dutch urban planner Steven Slabbers said, “Sea level rise is a … storm surge in slow motion that never creates a sense of crisis”.  It will take some creative, expensive, and aggressive planning to be able to adapt in the coming decades and centuries.

Original Format

Web Article

Collection

Citation

Brian McNoldy, “Water, Water, Everywhere: Sea Level Rise in Miami,” Submerging the Sunshine: Explore Sea Level Rise in South Florida, accessed March 28, 2024, https://submergingsunshine.omeka.net/items/show/19.

Output Formats